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Forecast Blog

West Wide Snow

By November 3, 2022No Comments

Summary

It has been a good start to the snow/water year.  A complete flip from the previous two years and I am hoping that this trend will stick as we continue to dive deeper into the season.

Below are the first of a few maps comparing this switch.  The first is the present water year to date. Water years begin on October 1st and end September 30th the following year.  You will notice a lot of green and blue.

Next is the chart from our first La Niña, in 2020.  A ton of red.  You can clearly see the main pattern path by following the blue and purple readings. Both 20-21 and 21-22 followed this same path frustrating those in Lake Tahoe, Arizona and New Mexico regions.

This year has been a promising start for those aforementioned places. We won’t know for sure if this pattern will stick until we get into December.

Below is the chart from 2020.

Current Snowpack

We got a late start to the snow season, because the early storms were all rain, but we will catch up with the present storm and the following systems, this map will look totally different next week.

Much like last year, the southern resorts of New Mexico and Arizona benefited from a cutoff low that came thru mid-October and last week’s system that dove down to Mexico.

Forecast

This is the 500mb flow of the present storm.  You can see the energy dive down from the Pacific Northwest down to Mexico.  This is a pretty good storm, and this appears to be in an amplified pattern.  We have gotten some help from the Madden Jullian Oscillation (currently straddling phase 6-7), but both the Artic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are positive.  That leads me to believe that if those two go negative, the AO and NAO, that we could have even stronger storms.  Something to watch.

Today thru the Weekend

Above is the chart for the next week.  As you can see, we are in an active pattern that will continue for the next couple of weeks.  I will go into more detail as we get closer to Thanksgiving.  

 

Forecasted Areas:

Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains

Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North,  Bachelor, Mt Baker,

Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains

Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch

Utah Wasatch Mountains

Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head

Colorado Rocky Mountains

Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek,  Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland

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