Wet and Warm for Tahoe, Here We Go

Posted March 9, 6:05 am PT 7:05 an MT

Daily Snow Stake

GFS Surface Map

500 mb chart

Infrared

All Snow High Res HRRR

Forecast

Scattered snow showers today in the Pacific Northwest’s, northern Cascades, until this afternoon when the storm, that has been spinning for days, finally gets caught in the flow and moves ashore. The first part of the storm will hit Oregon resorts first, as early as 8 am. By this time tomorrow we are looking at 1-2 feet for the southern Cascades and up to a foot for the northern Cascades.

California begins this afternoon as Flood, Wind and Winter Storm Warnings begin at 1pm thru Saturday night. Warm temperatures and strong winds will dominate the first couple of days. This may be the worst thing that can happen to the Sierra with all of the dry snow that has piled up, to get 6 inches of rain below 7000 ft, could be devastating for structures. For areas above 7000 today, there should be 1-2 feet of snow through tonight.

Total Precipitation thru Next Thursday

The highest snow levels should be Friday, where they will likely rise above 8000. By Saturday, if everything holds together with the model forecast, we should see snow levels back below 5500 feet, as the back side usually brings colder air.

Utah resorts get going late this evening and into the wee hours tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be warm but manageable. I am increasing my forecast totals, slightly, for Utah resorts today, because the models have a little better guidance. Snow totals thru Saturday will be in the 2-4 feet range.

Colorado, like it has been all season, gets the scraps left over from storms. This is a hallmark of the LRC. What happens in early October becomes established and repeats until the pattern changes in late summer. The pattern this year has been repeating regularly, with moisture generally becoming less and less as it moves to the east. Storm totals will likely be between 4-12 for areas along I-70, with the most snow in the southern part of the state, where 1-2 feet is possible.

Lake Tahoe

Click to Animate

Today

The storm moves into the Sierra around noon. Expect heavy rain below 7000 feet. Moderate to strong winds at base level, 20-25 mph with 60 mph gusts. Temperatures start off cold but will quickly rise as the warm air reaches the mountains. Ridgetop winds will be around 70 mph.

Friday

Warm, High temps near 40 at 5000 feet. Heavy rain with snow above 8000 ft, with strong winds in the 50-mph range at base level. Ridgetop winds likely near 100 mph.

Saturday

Temperatures will drop to near freezing at lake level, along with the wind. Wind speeds will be more manageable, lol, with 30-40 mph winds with gusts around 50 mph at lake level. Ridgetop winds still in the upper 60-70s.

Utah

Today

Powder Day! 10 inches at Solitude and around 8 inches at Alta and Snowbird. Bluebird skies today as we have a break between storms. Temps in the mid 20’s with light winds 10-15 mph.

Tonight/Friday

Heavy snow is back, with the emphasis on heavy (wet) at base level. Upper mountains should be ok.

Temps will be warm at base levels, around 30-32 degrees at base level and mid 20’s above 8000 ft, so expect a mixture of heavy snow at the lower elevations and dry snow above 8000.

Winds will be from the south between 20-25 mph with 40 mph gusts.

Saturday

Snow continues throughout the day, as the bulk of the system has passed. Temperatures will be colder with upper 20’s at base level and low 20’s above 8000 ft.

Colorado

Today and Tomorrow

We will have scattered snow showers for your early morning and then clear skies by noon. Winds will be between 10-20 mph. Tomorrow will be cloudy and warm. Temperatures in the low 40’s at base level with light to moderate winds.

Scattered snow showers are possible tomorrow in the afternoon, but I am not expecting too much precipitation–1-2 inches in a few spots with resorts along the passes most likely. The bulk of the storm moves in tomorrow evening, after the lifts close.

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Long-Range Prediction Chart

We are on storms 60-64 that will occur this week. Presently, we are in a lull with the strength of the storm systems, but that is predicted to energize in the coming days. We are seeing this energy on the models, around storm 64, for Lake Tahoe, with the aforementioned AR that is setting up now.