Forecast Updated Atmospheric River on Horizon for California

Posted March 7, 3:22 pm MT 2:22 PT

Updated March 8, 639 am MT 5:39 PT

Daily Snow Stake

GFS Surface Map

All Snow High Res NAM

Forecast

Lake Tahoe

The storm system that has been spinning with the Low centered near Seattle, gets caught in the flow today as the massive ridge breaks down. That will keep the storm door again for Lake Tahoe, however, for the first time in a while, we are going to talking about snow levels. An atmospheric river sets up Thursday afternoon and that will raise temperatures in the upper 30’s and by Friday as high as the low 40’s at 6000ft. Get to the mountains today, or tomorrow morning, before the snow spoils Friday.

Expect heavy rain in the valleys and likely massive flooding from melting snowpack. The way things have been going this could get ugly. Below is the GFS surface map of total precipitation. The second wave is the Atmospheric River (AR).

Today

Snow continues until mid-morning. Moderate winds at base level between 15-20 mph with 35 mph gusts. Ridgetop winds 50-60 mph. Temperatures in the mid 20’s at base level. The system moves out late today, maybe a little sun will poke out late in the day.

Tomorrow

The next system moves in tomorrow, around mid-morning. Moderate to strong winds at base level, 20-25 mph with 40 mph gusts. Temperatures start off cold but will quickly rise as the warm air reaches the mountains. The existing snow should be good until 11am.

Friday

Warm, High temps near 40 at 5000 feet. Heavy rain with snow above 8000 ft. Windy, good day for Cocaine Bear.

Utah

Today

Decent snow totals today throughout the Wasatch as the present system moves through. Temperatures will be in the mid 20’s at base level with moderate winds between 15-20 mph and 30 mph gusts.

Tonight

Heavy snow overnight expected, with Alta/Snowbird the clear favorite.

Thursday Dry (except Snowbasin)

Powder Day! Bluebird day as we have a break between storms. Temps in the mid 20’s with light winds 10-15 mph.

Friday

Heavy snow is back, with the emphasis on heavy (wet). Temps will be warm at base levels, around 30-32 degrees, so expect a mixture of heavy snow at the lower elevations and dry snow above 8000 ft. Winds will be from the south between 20-25 mph with 40 mph gusts.

Colorado

Total thru Saturday

Today and Tomorrow

We will have scattered snow showers and sun with maybe 1-3 inches in spots. Light winds between 10-15 mph with gusts near 30 mph. The next system moves in Friday.

Please Email with Suggestions

This website is for you. I don’t like surveys, but occasionally I do fill them out, when I care about the subject matter. I would like to know what you like, dislike, or what you would like to see more of, such as more charts, more science, more extensive forecasts, etc. Anything to make this site better.

We have a lot of things we are planning on adding this summer. We are going to do an extensive upgrade to add automated features like resort current conditions, add all the webcams that we can process., along with some back of the house items.

What else do we need? Email me at Mike@FutureSnow.CO

Pattern Discussion

The current conditions in California are going to get worse, unfortunately. As you know from reading this blog, atmospheric rivers (AR) repeat. This next storm, off the coast of California, is related to the AR back on December 1st. Last cycle, there was no AR, due to the lack of strength of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and non-favorable conditions from the Artic Oscillation.

The AR is returning this cycle, bringing a lot of warm, wet moisture to a state that is already in crisis. Take a look at the charts below.

I mentioned last cycle, there was a storm, just no AR. Palisades received 10, Kirkwood 8. and Heavenly 8. Paltry for Tahoe standards, but it is why Tahoe is so hard to forecast for. If the teleconnections line up, they get hammered. Remember, Tahoe is still a work in progress.

We have had such a hard time, over the years, predicting storms for the Lake, for the reasons I mentioned above, but the pieces of the puzzle are falling into place, and we are figuring it out.

ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation)

This is from our partner Gary Lezak and Weather 2020. As we thought was a strong possibility back in October, the California drought has ended. The reservoirs are filling up and we are in a wet pattern for the West. That will continue throughout the spring and early summer as the LRC (Lezaks Recurring Cycle) continues to cycle until a new pattern sets up in August.

What is happening now with ENSO is the LRC engineering the switch from La Nina to El Nino. At least, that is how we see it. The Pattern controls the teleconnections and we have discovered a small piece that allows us to predict storms.

Keep in mind there are seasonal differences with the pattern as we get into early summer. I say early summer because the jet stream reseeds north that time of year, taking the storm track with it. For California, again this is a work in progress. We will be monitoring the teleconnections and analyzing the data to see if our MJO theory is correct or not.

Long-Range Prediction Chart

We are on storms 60-64 that will occur this week. Presently, we are in a lull with the strength of the storm systems, but that is predicted to energize in the coming days. We are seeing this energy on the models, around storm 64, for Lake Tahoe, with the aforementioned AR that is setting up now.