Still Snowing in the West

Posted March 6, 6:55 MT 5:55 PT

Heavenly Snow Stake (Too windy to work, watch the base)

Daily Snow Stake

Infrared

Surface MSLP

All Snow

Pattern Discussion

What a year we are having. We have some Utah resorts that are into the 600’s, in terms of snowfall for the year. This storm off the coast has been cut-off from the flow and it is pretty unique, so I thought I’d break it down. The video below is the jet stream through Wednesday. Wednesday is when this west coast storm gets squeezed back into the flow.

This next animation is of the 500 millibar chart. This chart shows the same thing with the storm, spinning counterclockwise, just off the Washington coast. The jet stream flows around the ridge and finally the ridge collapses and the High-pressure area gets pinched to the north.

The pattern stays on time, even though this storm gets cut-off the systems flow into the spinning low. This can be seen in the long streaks of red that continue to flow into the Low. Pretty cool. Below are charts from the last 4 cycles. They are 4 different variations of the same thing. This shows how much variation there can be, with the next iteration coming next cycle.

One thing to note is that in the first cycle, October 14th chart, we did not have a storm off the west coast. This was due to the pattern becoming set, late. This year’s pattern did not become set until October 22nd.

Forecast Summary

Snow continues in the Pacific Northwest, Lake Tahoe and Utah today while Colorado has a break in the action. Utah will get its own break this afternoon that will last until Wednesday, when the next wave comes in. That wave will pass through Colorado by Thursday.

The intensity of the snow in Lake Tahoe has been turned down, from of a lack of moisture, and due to a dip in the MJO. I’ll dive into that during another post, as we are beginning to figure out the connection. Even with the intensity turned down, a few spots will get 1-3 feet by Wednesday.

Forecast

Lake Tahoe

Today

Winter Storm Warnings continue. Temps in the mid 20’s with light winds 10-15 mph with gusts in the low 20’s. Snow will continue throughout the day and evening.

Tomorrow

Snow continues with light winds 15-20 and cold temperatures, in the mid 20’s with wind chills in the single digits.

Wednesday

Snow in the morning and sun likely in the afternoon. It doesn’t look like we will get that intensity back like I expected. Still time, let’s see what happens.

Utah

Today

Snow wraps up this morning around 11. Lingering snow showers may continue for the upper elevations throughout the day. Expect another 3-5 for the Cottonwood resorts. Temperatures will be in the mid 20’s with light winds.

Tomorrow

Scattered snow showers throughout the day with temperatures in the mid 20’s. Light winds continue, between 5-10 mph.

Next System Moves in on Wednesday

Calendar Update

I have had a few inquiries about our March calendars, specifically about how the calendars relate to the Long-range forecast predictions. One reader pointed out a flaw that I have corrected for the Colorado calendar. March 12th should have been dark blue, and March 31st should have been light blue. That has been corrected.

The calendars have a few changes on some specific dates that are different than the official prediction chart. You may have noticed on the LRFPC (Long-Range Forecast Prediction Chart) that storms have been showing up, consistently, a day early. With that in mind, I have adjusted some dates forward on the calendars to reflect that difference. I do not ever change the LRFPC, because once those predictions are made,

I would love to add a whole bunch of data to the calendars but simply don’t have the time. Hopefully, I will be able to get things in place for the April, May and June calendars for select Colorado resorts that stay open late. Below is the Colorado calendar before and after. Thanks for reading the blog, as always, if you have any questions please feel free to comment below or email to Mike@FutureSnow.co.

Before