Winter Forecast
Pattern Set, Verifying
As the sun set on last year’s pattern, back in August, the new pattern has set, we are verifying the 22-23 cycle length. This process takes time because we are verifying what occurred in late July thru September. We have computer modeling based on algorithm parameters, that are proprietary, but what I can say is that they are helping us not only find the new pattern quicker, but also improve accuracy.
Pacific Oscillation
You may recall we talked about creating an index that we called the “Pacific Oscillation (PO)”. We rolled out that new tool last winter and decided to keep it in beta testing, before we released it. We won’t be releasing it, because as it turns out, it is a tool that gives us a competitive advantage.
It can predict changes to teleconnections before the weather models and can also indicate when a particular cycle will be amplified. Of course, we will let you know when the PO indicates some important changes—that you will hear first from FutureSnow.
22-23 Pattern Thoughts
First and foremost, we are in our third straight La Nina. The pattern has reflected some subtle changes and I don’t see much change in this year’s pattern over last years, with the exception of the northern part of the pattern, which appears to be significantly diminished. That will, hopefully, eliminate those long stretches without precipitation.
Like I stated above, the pattern is verifying, and we will know for sure by late November, at the latest. Most likely by late October. If this pattern holds together and verifies, we are looking at a shorter cycle length with similar storm structure.
Last pattern, we had 10 storms (in 64 days), of which three were significant (Trifecta, U-Storm, Seattle AR). The Trifecta skunked us in cycle 3 but was solid, as well as the other storms, through all cycles.
The Seattle atmospheric river (AR) event proved that AR’s can and do repeat. Those storms were huge for the Pacific Northwest’s above normal precipitation. The storm track began in the PNW and dove southeast to Colorado. It produced the biggest storm in Colorado on May 20-21st dumping over 16 inches.
Below are some highlights of last year’s main storms.
Tahoe AR
Seattle AR
Forecast Until Thanksgiving (UPDATED 10/15)
Below is the forecast until the week of Thanksgiving. Consider this forecast as an educated guess, based on what we believe is the pattern for this winter. This is a test….This is only a test. We will make our first set of official predictions once we verify the cycle length.
Last year, our first test prediction came out October 4th, with our first bulk set of predictions November 26th. The bar was set very high, last year producing a perfect record with our first 20 dates, that ranged from 9 to 57 days out.
This year I expect that the first official set of predictions will be out by November 1st. You can play along at home and note that if these perditions below are correct, the Nov 1 date is likely. If not, it’s back to the pattern board.
October
October 12th: Colorado storm with snow in the higher elevations. VERIFIED
Alyeska AK Trifecta 12th, 15th, 18th VERIFIED
October 14th: Storm reaches New England VERIFIED
October 23rd: Whistler, Seattle storm with SE track towards Colorado VERIFIED
October 24th: Utah and Colorado high elevation Snow VERIFIED 1 Day Early
October 27-29st: Utah and Colorado Snow (I’m guessing it’ll be cold) VERIFIED 1 Day Early
November Forecast
November 3-4th: Tahoe Rain and high elevation snow–Possible AR in AK VERIFIED
November 6-7th: Utah and Colorado Snow (I’m guessing it’ll be cold) VERIFIED
November 13th: Pacific NW Storm VERIFIED
November 14-15th: Utah, Colorado Storm VERIFIED
November 16th: Montana Storm On GFS On Track
Thank you for reading the blog. As always, if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co or comment below.
Parting Shots
Below are a few shots displaying the fall colors near Breckenridge.
