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Active Part of the Pattern, Engaged

By November 16, 2023No Comments

Posted November 16, 2023

Heavy Snow In Tahoe


Forecast Summary

We are moving into the active part of the pattern for the west.  The pattern is coming into focus with Canadian resorts favored so far.  Those of you who have been following for the last few years know that a unique pattern sets up in the fall and that pattern continues throughout the winter, spring and summer, before resetting all over again next fall.  A cycle length gets established in October and November, and the storms follow the same path, generally speaking.  

We are in the process of verifying the cycle length and are encouraged by the test predictions so far.  Presently, the first prediction verified for November 9th, and the next 6 predictions are generally on time and on the GFS above.  Below is the All-Snow version.  

Long Range Blended Model Forecast

Above are the northern pattern resorts of Whistler, Revelstoke and Banff Lake Louise.  For some reason Weather Bell uses centimeters for Reve and WB and inches for Banff.  These forecast models are probably wrong, because current technology just is not very good beyond 1 week, but this is something to watch to see if the models are in line with the LRC.

One thing to watch for on these charts is possibly a Steamboat surprise predicted for Tuesday December 5th.  Can the GFS be as good as FutureSnow?  My present thinking is there should be a storm around that timeframe and possibly a Nor’easter for the east coast.  That could be a preview to the next set of predictions, we’ll see, the pattern is still being verified–stay tuned.  

Current Storm Timeline

We have the bonus storm from the costal cut off low that will rip through the Sierra and Wasatch today dropping 2-4 for most areas, remember, this is a warm storm with snow levels around 8000 to 8500 feet.  Colorado gets its shot this afternoon and it will exit by 10 pm.  

What’s left of the spinning low pressure system gets caught in the flow Saturday and will bring scattered snow showers before the feature event.

Feature Event

Saturday night, the first wave hits Washington with snow levels dropping to 6500 ft.  That storm takes a southeast track and reaches Utah by Saturday around noon, the heaviest snow will fall Saturday night and Sunday.  The storm continues with its southeast track hitting western Colorado by 8pm, or so, Sunday night.  This is still a long way out (90hrs UT and 102hrs CO), so I’ll wait to give snow totals until tomorrow.  

The next storm, for Utah the 23th, is on the GFS and is on track for the predicted time period (presently running about a half day late).

Test Predictions +/- 2 Days

Nov 9th             Colorado                      Verified 1-Day Early

Nov 17th           PNW                                On Track

Nov 18th           Utah                                On Track

Nov 19th           Colorado                       On Track

Nov 22nd          Tahoe (maybe)           Still maybe (on the edge of the track)

Nov 23rd           Utah                               On Track

Nov 24th           Colorado                      On Track

Nov 27th           Tahoe

Nov 28th           Utah

Nov 29th           Colorado


Hurricane Page

We accurately predicted 3 hurricanes this year.  Hilary, Idalia, and Lidia.  All three storms had the correct date and location, within 1 day of the predicted date.  Hilary and Idalia had the predicted path. 

The season is almost over but there might be one more.  There is a possibility around November 17th that is showing up on the models around Cuba in the Caribbean Sea.  

You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first.



Thanks for reading the blog!  If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or email me at

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