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Cut Off Snow for Tahoe Thursday

By November 14, 2023No Comments

Posted November 14, 2023


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Forecast Summary

We have two areas of interest as we move into the latter part of the week.  First, we have a small system moving through the coastal British Columbia area that is moving southeast into eastern Washington overnight Wednesday.  Then turning east through Montana, during the day Thursday, on the way to Hudson Bay. 

The second system is a cutoff low, spinning off the coast of California, that will eject a wave and give Lake Tahoe a shot of precipitation beginning late Friday.  This will be for areas above 8500 feet, maybe as low as 8000–we’ll see, but kind of a bonus system so we’ll take it.  Totals will be minimal.  

Below is a view of the cutoff low and the shortwave ejection.

The cutoff system will move rapidly through Utah and Colorado Wednesday thru Thursday night for Colorado.  Snow levels will again be high for Utah, around 8000 feet due to a mild air in place.  We could get a quick 2-4 inches for the higher elevations.    Colorado will have similar totals and snow levels.  

By Saturday night, that cutoff low gets caught in the flow and will bring another round of precipitation for most of California.  If you want to watch the 500 mb flow, click on the thumbnail.  This low, caught in the flow, dives way down to the Yucatan Peninsula.  



Predicted System

Then we get into the predicted storm that impacts the coast late Saturday.  This storm takes a direct path from the Pacific Northwest southeast through Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, clipping northern Utah in the early morning hours Monday, finally arriving in Colorado Monday around 6 am, as of now.  

Below is the All-Snow continental view along with the predicted totals over the next 3, 5 and 7 day periods by region.


Longrange Ensemble Forecast

Below is the ensemble forecast beginning yesterday through next week.  This is a blend using 51 different forecasts and algorithms that gives us the best possible forecast using the data to date.  Just another tool to see what the computer knows vs the LRC.  Soon, we will produce our first model run using the LRC model.  We are still verifying the cycle length.  

Test Predictions +/- 2 Days

Nov 9th             Colorado                      Verified 1-Day Early

Nov 17th           PNW                                On Track

Nov 18th           Utah                                On Track

Nov 19th           Colorado                       On Track

Nov 22nd          Tahoe (maybe)

Nov 23rd           Utah

Nov 24th           Colorado

Nov 27th           Tahoe

Nov 28th           Utah

Nov 29th           Colorado


Hurricane Page

We accurately predicted 3 hurricanes this year.  Hilary, Idalia, and Lidia.  All three storms had the correct date and location, within 1 day of the predicted date.  Hilary and Idalia had the predicted path. 

The season is almost over but there might be one more.  There is a possibility around November 17th that is showing up on the models around Cuba in the Caribbean Sea.  

You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first.



Thanks for reading the blog!  If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or email me at

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