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Posted May 14, 8:20 am MT 7:20 PT

A beautiful sunrise this morning at Arapahoe Basin with Breckenridge in the background.

MSLP Surface Chart 

All Snow 

 4-Day Total Precipitation, 500 mb Flow (Click to Animate)


Forecast Discussion

This could be it.  Looking at the temperature forecasts, it looks like there won’t be any cold air in the near future.  The storms will still be cycling through, just at a springtime trajectory and it will be a wet spring. Take a look at the Total Precipitation totals for the rest of the month.  Wow!  The record producing pattern is still in charge.

California will continue to have storms through spring at an unenhanced rate.  Most of the storm tracks now are taking an El Nino like flow which could be an early indicator of next year’s pattern. 

Speaking of next year’s pattern, we have indications that there is long-range pattern that flows from year to year.  Based on how I view this pattern, I will go out on a limb and say that the west will have above average snowfall–700 or higher for Alta, Colorado around 140-160 percent of average, California’s Palisades will have around 400 inches, and the Pacific Northwest will have another above average year, around 150-200 percent of average for the northern Cascades with 130-150 percent of average for the southern Cascades.

Hurricane Forecast Next Post

Video of the LRC Cycle Comparison 22-23


This took a little more work than usual, because I couldn’t find a good format to compare the three cycles.  I finally settled on trimming each cycles width so that they could all fit on the screen.  

The video moves at a slow pace, but even with the slow pace, it is hard to see everything on the screen, so use the slider to move at your own pace. 

I am really proud of this video because first, it shows the fluctuation of the amplified pattern in each of the 3 cycles.  Second, the storms are closely synchronized.  With each frame advance, it is a quarter day.  You can see how the storms in each cycle closely follow the same track with slightly different timing.  Lastly, with the amplification, you can see how much the size and scope of the storms change.  Especially the California storms.  The amplification drops the storms to a more linear flow into the Sierra.  

Open Resorts


Palisades, Heavenly, Mammoth, Donner Ski Ranch


Snowbird, Solitude and Park City 


Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park 

Forecasted Areas

Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains

Crystal MountainMount Hood MeadowsTimberline49 Degrees North,  BachelorMt Baker,

Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains

HeavenlyPalisades TahoeKirkwoodDodge RidgeDonner Ski Ranch

Utah Wasatch Mountains

AltaPark CityDeer ValleyBrightonSnowbirdBrian Head

Colorado Rocky Mountains

AspenAspen HighlandsSnowmassVailBeaver Creek,  Winter ParkKeystoneArapahoe BasinBreckenridgeCopper MountainPowderhornSki CooperTellurideCrested ButteSilvertonWolf CreekEldoraLoveland

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