Posted May 16, 6:29 am MT 5:29 PT
MSLP Surface Chart
All Snow
4-Day Total Precipitation, Temperature (C)
Forecast Discussion
We have a lot of rain coming though the next couple of weeks, as this amazing pattern continues to deliver. The storm that is coming through this weekend dumped 43 inches at Alta and 36 at Snowbasin, over 3 days March 30-April 1st. That storm placed Alta into the 800 club.
The storms are still cycling regularly, there is a huge ridge that extends from British Columbia all the way to Alaska. A similar ridge occurred back on October 5th. Below is an example. Look similar? They are harmonics of one another, or part of a pattern within a pattern.
We had a record year in the West, because what we see in these above charts, did not happen very often. There was very little blocking (ridge) throughout the entire winter. Allowing storms to flow freely. When the ridge did appear, it was well off the coast allowing storms to go, up and around, still hitting the Pacific Northwest, Utah and Colorado.
Friday/Saturday
The last post was titled “cold air receding”. Well, it might be just cold during this next storm, that we have a shot of some fresh snow around 10,000 feet. If there is a strong cell producing downdraft, we could see snow below 8,000. We are still a long way out, so we will monitor this system and dial in a forecast as we get closer.
Hurricane Forecast Next Post
I have been working on the hurricane forecast. As you know I do this for fun and have had some decent success so far. Preliminary observations suggest it will be an active hurricane season. Florida will likely be hit again, with also a Gulf of Mexico and a Pacific storm, hitting somewhere between central to northern Mexico, including San Diego, which rarely gets hurricanes.
That sounds really general, and it is, but once we put the dates ranges in, that will narrow the field. As the pattern was setting up last fall, I thought Hawaii may be in the picture, I have since backed off on that thought, it still could happen, but the indicators within each cycle have dimmed.
More to come as I dive in deeper into the crystal ball. Thanks for reading, and as always, if you have any questions please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.CO
Video of the LRC Cycle Comparison 22-23
This took a little more work than usual, because I couldn’t find a good format to compare the three cycles. I finally settled on trimming each cycles width so that they could all fit on the screen.
The video moves at a slow pace, but even with the slow pace, it is hard to see everything on the screen, so use the slider to move at your own pace.
I am really proud of this video because first, it shows the fluctuation of the amplified pattern in each of the 3 cycles. Second, the storms are closely synchronized. With each frame advance, it is a quarter day. You can see how the storms in each cycle closely follow the same track with slightly different timing. Lastly, with the amplification, you can see how much the size and scope of the storms change. Especially the California storms. The amplification drops the storms to a more linear flow into the Sierra.
Open Resorts
California
Palisades, Heavenly, Mammoth, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah
Snowbird, Solitude and Park City
Colorado
Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
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