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Arapaho BasinForecast Blog

Hurricane Forecast, Snow Tomorrow Night for Colorado

By May 18, 2023No Comments

Posted May 18, 6:29 am MT 5:29 PT

MSLP Surface Chart 

All Snow 

 3-Day Total Precipitation, Temperature (C)

Forecast Discussion

We are still looking good for snow tomorrow night and early Saturday morning.  Presently the snow totals are in the 3-5 range for A-Basin.  

Hurricane Forecast (so far)

I have been working on the hurricane forecast.  As you know I do this for fun and have had some decent success so far predicting the exact date for Hurricane Ian (wrong location) last year and also predicted Hurricane Ida’s (2021) location but missed the exact date by 4 days.  These are not lucky guesses.  

The LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle) can be used to calculate the following years hurricane season, based on indications of what occurred during the cycling pattern.  

It will be an active hurricane season. Florida will likely be hit again, with also a Gulf of Mexico and a Pacific storm, hitting somewhere between central to northern Mexico, including the possibility of San Diego, which rarely gets hurricanes.   

Florida August 30-September 6th

This storm will come through Cuba, Puerto Rico or both hitting the eastern coast of Florida.  It will then move north Northeast through the Carolinas and farther up the east coast exiting around Maine.

Sept 6-7th Louisiana (low possibility)

This storm is kind of either/or situation.  If the storm doesn’t hit Florida, it would take an alternate path to Louisiana.  Florida is the most likely location.  There is a possibility of this storm originating in the Gulf and moving East hitting the West Coast of Florida.

Yucatan Peninsula South to Honduras Sept 30 to October 3rd

Watch out Cancun travelers.  This storm will originate in the Caribbean Sea and move west.

Pacific Storm Sept 30 to October 5th

This storm will originate of the South American west coast and move north northwest, likely west of Baja California, turning northeast around San Diego.  

More to come as I dive in deeper into the crystal ball.  Thanks for reading, and as always, if you have any questions please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.CO

Video of the LRC Cycle Comparison 22-23


This took a little more work than usual, because I couldn’t find a good format to compare the three cycles.  I finally settled on trimming each cycles width so that they could all fit on the screen.  

The video moves at a slow pace, but even with the slow pace, it is hard to see everything on the screen, so use the slider to move at your own pace. 

I am really proud of this video because first, it shows the fluctuation of the amplified pattern in each of the 3 cycles.  Second, the storms are closely synchronized.  With each frame advance, it is a quarter day.  You can see how the storms in each cycle closely follow the same track with slightly different timing.  Lastly, with the amplification, you can see how much the size and scope of the storms change.  Especially the California storms.  The amplification drops the storms to a more linear flow into the Sierra.  

Open Resorts




Snowbird, Solitude, Brighton


Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park 

Forecasted Areas

Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains

Crystal MountainMount Hood MeadowsTimberline49 Degrees North,  BachelorMt Baker,

Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains

HeavenlyPalisades TahoeKirkwoodDodge RidgeDonner Ski Ranch

Utah Wasatch Mountains

AltaPark CityDeer ValleyBrightonSnowbirdBrian Head

Colorado Rocky Mountains

AspenAspen HighlandsSnowmassVailBeaver Creek,  Winter ParkKeystoneArapahoe BasinBreckenridgeCopper MountainPowderhornSki CooperTellurideCrested ButteSilvertonWolf CreekEldoraLoveland

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