Posted November 9, 2023
Forecast Discussion
Colorado Recap
Scattered snow showers throughout the morning and maybe into the afternoon today as the system moves out. Breckenridge, Eldora, and Winter Park had nice totals ranging from 9 at Breck, Winter Park 7, El Dora, Aspen, Keystone 5, Arapahoe Basin 4, Powderhorn, Copper 3, Vail 2.
Long Range Forecast
Below is the latest map showing model guidance through 294hours (12.25 days). This is way out and will not be very precise, but when it shows storms that “should” be there I feel that the models must be on to something.
All Snow
Hemi
Looking at the northern hemisphere snow chart, you can kind of see the northern part of the pattern. If you look at the snow falling in Europe and Siberia, if you imagine an imaginary circle of the storm track, if it were to continue around the globe, you can see where the northern pattern is for Canada. This is not very sciency, its more art than science, but so is the cycling pattern. That is why the cycling pattern wasn’t discovered until the 40’s, then lost until Gary Lezak rediscovered it in the 1980’s.
My thoughts on the fluid dynamics of this year’s pattern are my own as I am trying to grasp how we can have a northern pattern with a regular pattern. We had this type of pattern before this last pattern, in 21-22 (64-day Cycle). Again, not sciency, but this is what I am working through with the paragraph below.
The current pattern for this year resembles an elliptical shape, with a somewhat irregular orbit, akin to describing it through planetary motion. I have just recently started watching the hemisphere “all snow” chart and did not look at it regularly back during the 64 Cycle. Maybe this is why we have a northern pattern; it could simply be a wobbling pattern.
Will this trend continue? let’s wait and see, we’ll have a clearer understanding in the next 30 days as we officially get into cycle 2.
Next system on the prediction chart is on time.
Ski Concierge Service
As a member of FutureSnow, you have access to our Ski Concierge Service. Simply email us your trip date and time range and we will tell you when and where go. Along with personalized forecasts for your trip.
Last year, we had a select group meet us at Alta for a huge storm that we saw coming months in advance. We skied deep powder everyday with dumps of 11, 11, 19, and 7. We will plan a trip again this year once we know when and where the best snow will be.
Test Predictions +/- 2 Days
Nov 9th Colorado Verified 1-Day Early
Nov 17th PNW
Nov 18th Utah
Nov 19th Colorado
Nov 22nd Tahoe (maybe)
Nov 23rd Utah
Nov 24th Colorado
Nov 27th Tahoe
Nov 28th Utah
Nov 29th Colorado
Hurricane Page
We accurately predicted 3 hurricanes this year. Hilary, Idalia, and Lidia. All three storms had the correct date and location, within 1 day of the predicted date. Hilary and Idalia had the predicted path.
The season is almost over but there might be one more. There is a possibility around November 17th that is showing up on the models around Cuba in the Caribbean Sea.
You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first. https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2023/
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
