Posted May 1, 6:39 am MT 5:39 PT
Updated May 2 5:18 am MT 4:18 PT
Updated maps, forecast hasn’t changed for Lake Tahoe. Colorado Divide resorts look to have an inch or two tonight and we are still looking good for snow Thursday morning, however the temps have ticked up a bit. More to come tomorrow.
MSLP Surface Chart thru May 7
7-Day Total Precipitation, Total Snow and Total Precipitation GIF
Snow continues Tuesday and Tuesday night with 2-4 likely during the day with heavier snow tomorrow night with totals in the 4-8 range. Snow levels look pretty good and should be around 7000 ft during the day dropping to 5500 overnight. Bring your squeegees for base level!
Base level temps around 40, with upper mountain temps in the low to mid 20’s. Winds will be mild, in the 10-15 mph range, with ridgetop winds 20-25 mph. Surface and Ridgetop wind charts below (click to animate).
Scattered snow showers expected thru early afternoon on Wednesday, with not much precipitation expected. Base level temps in the mid 40’s with upper mountain temps in the upper 20’s. That’s with a lapse rate of 3.5 degrees per 1000 feet.
Check out these next two charts, the 700 mb (about 10,000 ft) and the 2-meter chart (surface level). You can see how the Low pressure blocks the surrounding warm temperatures. Click to animate.
A look at the history of this storm. A cut-off low has happened 3 out of the last 4 cycles. I posted the following charts on Friday. The cycling pattern is pretty cool and sometimes is easy to see. I am making a comparison movie that I should be finished with this week.
The models should have a better handle on totals tomorrow. Below are the Meteorgrams showing projected snow water equivalent for Aspen and Lake Tahoe.
There is a chance of rain or snow every day this week, but not much is expected. Temperatures will be spring like, in the lower 5o’s with light winds.
On Wednesday, winds begin to pick up as a stronger wave arrives late afternoon. Thursday it gets interesting, with morning temperatures in the low 20’s we could see a few inches, maybe up to 5, but it is a long way off so take that with a flake of snow. 4-day totals below.
Thanks for reading the blog, as always if you have any questions feel free to comment below, or send me an email to Mike@FutureSnow.CO
If the Long-Range Forecast Prediction Chart were to continue thru May, the dark blue dates would be on the chart. The other shades are the storms that occurred through an amplified part of the pattern.
This time of year, the pattern is lifting to the north and east, so there is no guarantee that the storms will reach Utah or Colorado, but they will be there and if they miss, they will likely miss north and east.
Snowbird, Solitude and Park City
Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin, Copper Mountain, Winter Park and Loveland
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland