Posted April 30, 7:07 am MT 6:07 am PT
Aurora Cam and Alyeska AK
MSLP Surface Chart thru May 7
All Snow
7-Day Total Precipitation, Total Snow and Total Precipitation GIF
Forecast Discussion
Day 12 Cycle 5
This week we have a series of storms that will drop a lot of precipitation over the next 7 days. Winter will return to the Sierra, as it has been a long break with warm temperatures and melting snowpack. Snow begins tonight in the Pacific Northwest. Snow levels start out at 8500 feet dropping on 6000 feet after midnight. Crystal Mountain is open weekends thru May 27. Mt Hood Meadows last day was yesterday, but Timberline will be open thru the summer.
This system slides down the Pacific coast and is cut-off from the main flow, reaching the Sierra tomorrow afternoon. Snow levels will be high, around 7500 feet, dropping to around 6000 feet overnight. This first round will drop between 0.5-1.0 of liquid, so we could see up to a foot of snow up top.
Snow continues Tuesday thru Wednesday with rising and falling snow levels throughout the period. I don’t think snow levels will rise above 7500 feet due to a cap from the spinning Low. Check out these next two charts, the 700 mb (about 10,000 ft) and the 2-meter chart (surface level). You can see how the Low pressure blocks the surrounding warm temperatures. Click to animate.
This same thing happened 3 out of the last 4 cycles as I posted the following charts on Friday. The cycling pattern is pretty cool and sometimes is easy to see. I am making a comparison movie that I should be finished with this week.
The California Low doesn’t reach Colorado until Friday, but the storm that follows the jet stream and isn’t cut-off hits late afternoon tomorrow. Tomorrow will be warm with high temps in the low 50’s for Divide resorts A-Basin and Loveland. Not much snow is expected with this first round, perhaps 0-3 inches. Another round of unsettled activity follows on Tuesday and Tuesday night with another 0-3 possible.
The models should have a better handle on totals tomorrow. Below are the Meteorgrams showing projected snow water equivalent for Aspen and Lake Tahoe.
Thanks for reading the blog, as always if you have any questions feel free to comment below, or send me an email to Mike@FutureSnow.CO
If the Long-Range Forecast Prediction Chart were to continue thru May, the dark blue dates would be on the chart. The other shades are the storms occurred through an amplified part of the pattern. This time of year, the pattern is lifting to the north and east, so there is no guarantee that the storms will reach Utah or Colorado, but they will be there and if they miss, they will likely miss north and east.
Open Resorts
Utah
Snowbird, Solitude and Park City
Colorado
Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin, Copper Mountain, Winter Park and Loveland
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
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