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Forecast Blog

May Surprise Next Week?

By May 4, 2023No Comments

Posted May 3, 6:39 am MT 5:39 PT

MSLP Surface Chart thru May 6

All Snow 

Forecast Discussion 

Continued chances of snow throughout the west at the storm system works its way through.  Sierra snow levels today are around 6500 feet and base level temperatures in the low 40’s with light winds. 

In Utah, light snow is expected today and through Wednesday of next week, with the best snow hitting Saturday.  Expect an inch or two each day with 2-4 on Saturday.  

Colorado has a small wave that is passing through this morning that might produce 1-2 inches, and tonight thru Saturday morning will have scattered showers with minor accumulations.  

Colorado Next Thursday 

Possible Big Storm

We are tracking a system, on the GFS, for Colorado that is pretty large, especially for this time of year.  Right now, it looks to dump a foot of snow in spots.  So, how does this storm fall in line with the pattern, let’s dive in and break it down.

These next 5 charts are from each cycle through the last chart that is projected for May 11th.  I am showing you these charts because all of them show a trough that will allow cold Canadian air, which is essential this time of year.  

The projected chart most resembles the chart from December 14th.  During that cycle, Wolf Creek received 3 feet over 3 days, with Aspen 15 and Steamboat 11.  Arapah0e Basin is in the best position for the coldest air so I am hoping we have a storm like last year’s May storm that dumped 16 inches on May 21st.  Will history repeat itself?  Let’s hope.

This storm did not hit in all cycles.  It missed in cycle 3 for both Utah and Colorado.  Looking at the May Calendar for A-Basin, you can see the 60% chance on the 11th and the 30% chance for the 12th.  

The 12th is not the only chance for good snow.  Looking at the calendar, the 9th is on the GFS at well, that also could bring good totals for next Tuesday.

Open Resorts

California

Palisades, Heavenly, Mammoth

Utah

Snowbird, Solitude and Park City 

Colorado

Breckenridge, Arapahoe Basin, Copper Mountain, Winter Park 

Forecasted Areas

Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains

Crystal MountainMount Hood MeadowsTimberline49 Degrees North,  BachelorMt Baker,

Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains

HeavenlyPalisades TahoeKirkwoodDodge RidgeDonner Ski Ranch

Utah Wasatch Mountains

AltaPark CityDeer ValleyBrightonSnowbirdBrian Head

Colorado Rocky Mountains

AspenAspen HighlandsSnowmassVailBeaver Creek,  Winter ParkKeystoneArapahoe BasinBreckenridgeCopper MountainPowderhornSki CooperTellurideCrested ButteSilvertonWolf CreekEldoraLoveland

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