Snow Stake Cams…..Coming Soon Snow Stake Page
We have the Long-Range Forecast Predictions updated and the glitch fixed. We are finishing up our second set of predictions and then it’s on to the next. The pattern is generally, right on schedule, but is fluctuating more like an El Nino pattern. Checking in on the teleconnections, the Artic Oscillation (AO) is projected to veer closer to neutral, after being deep in negative territory. We have a weak La Nina, that is trending towards neutral as well.
We have had 2 Busts that were both related to Lake Tahoe. I have received emails regarding the forecasts for the Lake and we are homing in on what storms will hit, and what storms will miss. If you look at last year, we had a similar record. Tahoe is not on the main jet path and its storms are much harder to predict. It takes a couple of cycles to figure out. Compounding the difficulty was a late setup of the pattern.
Usually, the pattern is set by early October, so what happens during that time will dictate the rest of the pattern. This year’s setup was a couple of weeks late. We didn’t have anything between Oct 4-22nd. Luckily, the pattern wasn’t dry, with a big boring stretch during that period, the storms just hadn’t moved south for the winter yet. You may recall a blog post that talked about Alyeska getting a Trifecta like, wave of storms, before the active pattern was to set to return. Those three storms moved south and filled in that dry period.
Those three storms were Thanksgiving thru the first week of December. Those storms will return in January–beginning Jan 11th on the chart below. Gary posted the Tahoe Long-Range storm chart, by Weather 2020’s patent pending model, beginning Jan 1 until March 31st. This model should give us better performance for the Sierra region.
When you look at the Tahoe storm chart below, it is clear which dates the storms will recur. The February storm, that is 800% of average, is the model’s prediction of the biggest storm. It’s not going to be that strong, but if it is, look out!
There are 7 good storms in the model data. Starting about the 19th, then 28th, then the biggest storm projected around Valentine’s Day.
Thanks for reading the blog, as always if you have any questions, please ask in the comments below or send an email to Mike@FutureSnow.CO
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