Posted April 4, 6:56 am MT 5:56 am PT
Snow Stake Cams
Snow Rescue at Mt Baker
This has been making the rounds on social media the last week. If you haven’t seen it, it is an incredible rescue and it shows how you can get sucked into a tree well. Mt Hood has it on their front page so I thought I would post it as well. https://youtu.be/wQ8Kgb_XUkk
Mt Hood Meadows has an account from Francis Zuber and KOMO news that you can read here.
MSLP Surface Chart
All Snow GFS
Alta is reporting 27 inches in the last 24 hours and the road to Alta/Snowbird is closed with no timeline for opening. They are sitting at 840 inches with another 5-10 inches expected today. I was thinking that 900 was likely, but the models are showing a dry stretch that hasn’t occurred since cycle 1. We may be finally shifting gears to a spring-like pattern.
The next storm on the list, storm 77 for Utah, is running a day early on the GFS and is looking weak. Below is the spreadsheet I posted yesterday. The area circled is the next scheduled storm for Utah. After this storm, the GFS has a dry period until April 14th, which means we will likely have our at least 1 bust before we get back on track.
I have forecasted these storms to continue thru April, but the storm track can shift to a spring-like pattern at any time. My thinking was that the Sierra storms will vanish first, as the jet stream, or storm track, recedes north. so expect some busts with the Sierra storms.
We have banked such an incredible accuracy percentage that I felt, at the time, it was worth it. We will need some teleconnection help, which we will have with the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) for the next couple of weeks. There is a little lag that is associated with the MJO, so if it is going to help it should be around a week from now. Hopefully, the models begin to pick up on this–fingers crossed.
We are working on our long-range forecast for Arapahoe Basin. We have published the calendar through the end of May. Again, as the storm track recedes, some of the storms will miss north, but these calendars give us a roadmap of potential storms. The first chart is for Eagle County. We ran this model for Vail/Beaver Creek resorts. It is showing continued above average snowfall for April and below average temperatures. Beaver Creek is scheduled to close April 17, Vail a week later, April 24th.
Heavy snow and calm winds continue. Temperatures will be cold, in the single digits with negative wind chills around -5.
The storm moves out early in the morning, as of now, before the lifts open. Temps around 20. Expect scattered snow showers to continue until 2-3 o’clock.
Snow, heavy at times, with breaks in between bands. Winds not as strong, between 15-25 mph with gusts in the low 40’s–expect higher numbers along the passes. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 20’s.
Scattered snow showers likely throughout the day. Light winds between 10-15 mph with temperatures in the mid 20’s.
Bluebird day with temps in the low 20’s with light winds between 10-15 mph at base level with gusts in the 20’s. Wind chills in the negative digits, so don’t be fooled by the light winds.
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland