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Snow on the Stakes

By October 3, 2023No Comments

Posted October 3, 2023

Snow in Colorado

GFS Surface Level Chart thru 384 Hours


Pattern Discussion 

Our first snowstorm is in the books and it’s on to the next.  I made a GIF of the Mean Sea Level Pressure (Surface) chart that goes all the way out, as far as it goes.  The first few days will be pretty accurate and drop off gradually after that, but you get the sense of the flow and what’s coming.  

You can see that most of the storms are hitting the Gulf of Alaska, which is completely normal this time of year.  The storm that just came through came with our first good winter-like trough.  As you watch this next GIF, watch the large trough that drops all the way into Mexico and spins and flows east.  

This animated chart is the same as the MSLP above, but instead of the surface, this chart shows the weather between 16,000 to 20,000 feet.  In the upper left hand corner of the chart shows the model run, in this case it is the 06 Z Oct 3  meaning 6 AM Zulu time (Greenwich Mean Time), or London to make it easier.  6 AM London is 11 PM Mountain Time  or 10 Pacific.

There are four model runs per day for the GFS. The 06, 12, 18, and 00.  The 06 run is considered a control run that has no adjusted data points.  I usually don’t use the 06 unless it shows the repeating pattern better—which in the case above it does.

Hurricane Discussion (from yesterday)

The tropics are beginning to heat back up.  Hilary’s return is forming in the Pacific, around the same spot as when it came through in August–Right on time.  Below is a satellite shot of a possible track.

By Saturday, we have the potential of 3 storms.  

The storm in the Atlantic doesn’t appear to be threat, however both storms in the Pacific will need to be watched.  It is way too early to tell the track for either storm, so I won’t speculate, other than to say that we know the track of Hilary, so we should expect a similar path with seasonal differences.  

Possible Hurricane Dates (prediction date May 19th)

Below are the updated predictions for possible hurricanes using our long-range prediction formula.  

Aug 12-17 Pacific Storm—–Verified Hurricane Hilary

Aug 30-Sept 6 Florida—–Verified Hurricane Idalia

Sept 26-Oct 3 Florida (added Sept 4th)

Sept 27- Oct 5 Hawaii

Sept 30-Oct 3rd Yucatan

Sept 30-Oct 5 Pacific Storm

Oct 4-12 Possible Return of Hilary


You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first.



Thanks for reading the blog!  If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or email me at

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