Summer Pattern

Posted June 18, 7:26 am MT 6:26 PT

June Pow

Summer Pattern

We are in a summer pattern with the jet stream way up in Canada.  The storms are still cycling and are just about ready to begin the process of switching to the new pattern, over the next few months.  By October, the new pattern will be complete.  Check out the 500 mb flow below.  I have sped this up a lot so that you can see the systems sweeping through Canada.

This next chart is a long way out, but this tropical storm is where it is supposed to be.  The hurricane season is upon us and will be ramping up over the next several months.  We will keep an eye on this system and see if it develops.  The official Hurricane forecast follows.

Hurricane Forecast

The LRC (Lezak’s Recurring Cycle) can be used to calculate storms during hurricane season, based on indications of what has occurred during the cycling pattern since it evolved back in October.  This hurricane season will have 3-4 landfall events, with a total of 7-9 hurricanes.  

Florida will likely be hit again, with also a Gulf of Mexico and a Pacific storm, hitting somewhere between central to northern Mexico, including the possibility of San Diego, which rarely gets hurricanes.   

I haven’t ruled out a hurricane for Hawaii, it looked like it was possible as the pattern was setting up last year, however, there were no follow up indicators.  

Florida August 30-September 6th

This storm will come through Cuba, Puerto Rico or both hitting the eastern coast of Florida.  It will then move north Northeast through the Carolinas and farther up the east coast exiting around Maine.

Sept 6-7th Louisiana (low possibility)

This storm is kind of either/or situation.  If the above storm doesn’t hit Florida, it could take an alternate path, south of Florida, to Louisiana.  Florida (above storm) is the most likely location.  There is a possibility of this storm originating in the Gulf and moving East hitting the West Coast of Florida, but that is unlikely.

Yucatan Peninsula South to Honduras Sept 30 to October 3rd

Watch out Cancun travelers.  This storm will originate in the Caribbean Sea and move west.

Pacific Storm Sept 30 to October 5th (Possibly 1 cycle earlier, August 12-17th)

This storm will originate of the South American west coast and move north northwest, likely west of Baja California, turning northeast around San Diego.  

Thanks for reading, as always, if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.CO

Video of the LRC Cycle Comparison 22-23

 

This took a little more work than usual, because I couldn’t find a good format to compare the three cycles.  I finally settled on trimming each cycles width so that they could all fit on the screen.  

The video moves at a slow pace, but even with the slow pace, it is hard to see everything on the screen, so use the slider to move at your own pace. 

I am really proud of this video because first, it shows the fluctuation of the amplified pattern in each of the 3 cycles.  Second, the storms are closely synchronized.  With each frame advance, it is a quarter day.  You can see how the storms in each cycle closely follow the same track with slightly different timing.  Lastly, with the amplification, you can see how much the size and scope of the storms change.  Especially the California storms.  The amplification drops the storms to a more linear flow into the Sierra.  

 

Forecasted Areas

Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains

Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North,  Bachelor, Mt Baker,

Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains

Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch

Utah Wasatch Mountains

Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head

Colorado Rocky Mountains

Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek,  Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland

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