Posted October 29, 2023
Test Predictions Day
A few more inches to top it off.
This Year’s Pattern
The main theme of this year’s pattern, which officially began October 1, at the beginning of the new water year, has been to have a storm followed by dry stretches of 7 to 16 days.
October is pretty hard to read because the main storm track has yet to move into place. We have to make an educated guess as to which storms that are flowing in Canada and to the north of Utah and Colorado, will dive down next cycle.
Lake Tahoe has not seen much action this year, Palisades has recorded 3 inches’ so far and that was last week’s storm. Mammoth has had about a half inch, according to their weather page: https://mammothmountain.westernweathergroup.com
Palisades can be found here: https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/snowfall-tracker
Utah and Colorado have had good storms, which is in line with my expectations for this season, but there have been those dry stretches I mentioned above.
I am expecting Utah and Colorado to have above average precipitation, based on some long-range work I am exploring.
However, there may be a northern track this year, that would rob some of Utah and Colorados storms. We will know for sure by about mid December. That will give us ample time to see how these storms track in cycle two.
Test Predictions +/- 2 Days
Nov 9th Colorado (not on the GFS)
Nov 17th PNW
Nov 18th Utah
Nov 19th Colorado
Nov 22nd Tahoe (maybe)
Nov 23rd Utah
Nov 24th Colorado
Nov 27th Tahoe
Nov 28th Utah
Nov 29th Colorado
There they are, the first set of test predictions. We will see how they lineup with this year‘s pattern. They could be off by up to two days, if the storms are not anywhere close then it’s back to the drawing board.
I have not included Canada or the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in these predictions, so if you are from those regions, email me and I’ll tell you when those storms will roll through.
There are more storms for the PNW and Canada in the pattern so far. It may be one of those years where a trip to Powder Highway, Whistler, Banff or Revelstoke my be the preferred location for those who go where the powder is—still way too early to tell.
When I think of where we were last year at this time, we did know that the drought was likely going to end for Lake Tahoe. On November 1, last year, we published the LRC model forecast that predicted over 140% of average for Lake Tahoe, with 70 to 100% of average for the PNW.
This year based on how the pattern is setting up, I would predict the Pacific Northwest to be 110 and 130% of average. We’re going to have a LRC model run soon. Of course we will share that with you when it’s out.
You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first. https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2023/
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.cow