Welcome to an exciting snowy forecast in February!
I am updating this blog with a video attached. The pattern is cycling and right on schedule. There are some big takeaways for the rest of the season that we will discuss in this blog.
The Lake Tahoe area has been bombarded by snowstorm after snowstorm this winter. These storm systems were predicted by the LRC back in November when Weather 20/20 forecasted 200 to 600% of average snow for the season, and it has already happened. We are not done yet.
The part of the pattern that produced the strongest and wettest storm systems is returning now and for the next two to three weeks. Some of the models are predicting 8 to 10 feet of snow over the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada range at around 8,000 feet up.
Do you remember this storm from early January?
The part of the pattern that produced this storm will be cycling back through around February 20 to 24 and we are predicting another storm to look similar to this one. The pattern will become quite favorable for significant amounts of snow from a series of storm systems.
The patent-pending LRC Model predicted this wet stretch ahead weeks ago as you can see below:
There have been many articles published suggesting that forecasters did not see this winter of snow storms and wet weather in California coming. Well, FutureSnow & The LRC didn’t just see it coming, the model predicted 200 to 600 percent of average snow and rain. The weather pattern is cycling according to the peer reviewed LRC and the model. This is good news for late season skiers out west. This part of the pattern will also cycle back through at the end of March into April.
The Arctic Oscillation also shows some cyclicality to the pattern, but it isn’t in phase with the LRC. The influences are significant at times, especially when these indexes dip deep negative or go higher positive. When they dip negative, Arctic air is more likely to dive south and blast the United States. This will often energize the pattern and this happened in December just before California got blasted by storm after storm. But, it isn’t the AO that predicts the storm systems. The series of storm systems was created by the cycling weather pattern as described by the LRC.
Notice how the AO was positive in cycle 1 in this part of the pattern, then it was deep negative in cycle 2, and now it is back to positive in cycle 3 as this series of storm systems begins to organize over the Pacific Ocean. It will be interesting to watch this unfold in the coming weeks. We are predicting that 8 to 10 feet over some of the higher elevations which will set the stage for some great skiing in the next two months.
La Niña is fading. I will be very happy when La Niña ends. I live in Kansas City, and it has been a very frustrating winter here, and I believe this LRC and La Niña have combined to make it not that exciting in our part of the world. We do have one ski area in KC, and it has been a rough winter for them to stay open in Weston, MO at Snow Creek. But, that is here in the plains. It is a completely different story out west, thank goodness.
Here are my conclusions, shown above. Let’s have fun and track these storm systems.
Thank you for reading this week’s blog entries. We will keep you updated,
Gary Lezak – Founder Weather 20/20
