Posted April 18, 6:09 am MT 5:09 am PT
MSLP Surface Chart thru Apr 21
We are back to the part of the pattern that led to deep totals for Lake Tahoe in the last two cycles. Take a look at the two pictures that are a part of the opening slide from Gary and Weather 2020 (cycles 2,3 and 4). These two pictures look so similar.
In the opening slide, cycle 3 (middle) has the same characteristics as its counterparts but didn’t form the large comma head. Just another example of the repeating pattern.
Looking at the webcams in Palisades, it is full on nuking. Heavenly’s cam has at least 5 inches since yesterday. This storm will continue for the next couple of hours, until around 7 or 8 this morning. The storm moves out and we will see sunshine this afternoon with temperatures rising to 34, at base level and upper 20’s at the peak.
Heavy snow today in Utah as the models are now showing stronger vorticity around Alta and Snowbird. This should deliver 10-15 today with possibly an inch or two tonight. Alta is just 21 inches away from 900 and they close for the season Sunday. It’s going to go down to the wire.
Temperatures will be falling throughout the day and settle in the low 20’s by lift closure. Event snowfall totals should be in the 10-15 range for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton and Solitude, with 3-6/4-8 for Park City, Deer Valley, and Snowbasin.
Next Storm for Utah hits Thursday
Windy and warm with highs in the 50’s today, the Utah system moves in overnight tonight. Not much expected tonight, this storm is doing the opposite for Colorado, as the models are being less generous. I am expecting 2-4 for most resorts with the southern resorts possibly missed. The bullseye looks to be around Vail and Beaver Creek, at present, with most snow falling during the day tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the low 30’s tomorrow with moderate winds for the central and northern mountains. Stronger winds expected along the divide, with gusts in the lower 40’s.
Alta 21 inches to 900
3 storms before closing date, Storms 83, 86 and 89
Storm 83 and 86 Storm 83 and 86 are connected and are a two-wave storm. They are a part of a huge low-pressure system that will develop in the Gulf of Alaska in the coming days. If both waves of this storm come through, we should get to within single digits for the last storm. All bets are off, this time of year due to the changing jet stream, so lets hope it hits.
I have this storm hitting on Monday, but it will most likely hit on Alta’s last day. I use averaging when making the long-range forecast, based on the storm’s history. This storm has been a “tweener” meaning it has hit a day early and a day late from cycle to cycle. It is a big storm so there will be at least 2-3 days of precipitation. With luck we will still have cold air in place. Could the 900 mark come down to the last day?
Thanks for reading the blog, as always if you have any questions feel free to comment below, or send me an email to Mike@FutureSnow.CO
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