Welcome to Future Snow
If you are new to our site, you are in for a surprise. The weather repeats. Stay with me now, for the last 20 years, Gary Lezak, a meteorologist in my hometown of Kansas City, has been working on understanding how this all works and has authored a peer reviewed study called “Cycling Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere“. Below is a video with two cycles synced up so you can see the pattern clearly.
That is a little background on what we call the Pattern. Once you understand it, you can predict weather months in advance–that is what we do here. Presently, we are about 87 percent accurate predicting storms over 30 days out. We have an official prediction chart posted with all of this years predicted storms and results.
Colorado and Utah Stoke
We are continuing to roll through cycle 3. We are still in the Active West part of the Pattern. The next phase, the Northern Part of the Pattern, begins on the 22nd. The above GFS GIF shows the active west pattern with its last storm before the switch. Storms roll down from Seattle on an angle to Colorado. When we switch patterns, the storms will track like the example below.
There are two storms that mimic the Active West Pattern during the Northern Pattern. Those storms occur on days 48-49 (Mar 25-26) and 54-56 (Mar 30 Apr 1-2). These storms were weak in both cycles, but they should be at peak strength this time of year.
Friday and Friday Night
Off and on snow showers in the Pacific Northwest Cascades with 3-5 expected for Crystal Mountain, Mt Hood and Mt Bachelor through Saturday evening. We are still battling high snow levels until colder air moves in on Saturday.
Saturday and Saturday night is when this system moves down the coast to Tahoe and over to Utah. This will be a welcome shot in the arm for Tahoe as they have missed out on a lot of the action. I am expecting 3-5 for most areas above 6000 ft. Utah gets going Saturday night but the main act will be Sunday . Snow most of the day Sunday with 4-8 for Alta, Brighton, and Snowbird. Colorado resorts will have to wait until Sunday night.
Long Range Forecast
This is a reprint of our prior spring break forecast back in mid-February and it has been spot on. All of the predicted storms have been there and on time. You can scroll thru and see the upcoming storms, we have just talked about.
Finally, the long-range predictions thru mid-April are last. Thanks for reading the blog, if you have any questions feel free to comment in the comments below or send an email to Mike@FutureSnow.co
Spring Break Forecast for March
We are split again during these dates. The only consensus is Colorado on days 42-43 (Mar 19-20). This was a small storm in both cycles with Colorado resorts picking up between 6-12, on average, in both cycles.
If the strength of the Pattern mirrors cycle 1, then Alta, Snowbird and Park City all received snow on day 41, which is March 18th.
During this week, in both cycles, we had a storm on day 43 (March 20), same storm as above, in Colorado (Nov 12, Jan 15). Both storms were on the mild side with Breckenridge getting 11 in cycle 1 and Aspen and Steamboat receiving 3 in cycle 2. Another small wave came through on day 49 (Mar 26) with snow totals between 3-4 for Breckenridge, Alta and Snowbird.
On days 52-54 (Mar 29-31), depending on which cycle, there was a storm that came through Colorado and Utah. Minor totals in both cycles for Utah, from 3 in cycle 1, to just an inch in cycle 2. Colorado ranged from 2-4 for most mountains in Cycle 2, to 6-9 for most mountains in cycle 1. I am expecting this to be more like Cycle 1 this time thru due to the strength of the jet stream this time of year.
All Pattern Storms thru Mid-April
Place, Date of Prediction, Mountains, Lead Time, Date Predicted, Cycle day
|Colorado||1-March||Northern Mountains||18||Mar 19-20||42-43||1|
|Revelstoke, Banff||1-March||Selkirk, Alberta Range||21||Mar 22-23||45-46||1|
|Jay Peak||1-March||Vermont||23||Mar 24-25||47-48||1|