GFS Surface Chart Through Thursday
All Snow Version
I receive a lot of great questions from email, along with trip forecast requests. Thank you for your imput and interest in what we are doing. It is a pleasure to share this passion for snow sports with you, so if you have any questions, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.CO.
A few of the questions this week:
What is the forecast for Hakkai Sanroku Ski Area in Japan? This is a first, getting to forecast for a resort in Japan. As you know, the pattern cycles for the entire northern hemisphere, so if you know the pattern, you can figure out what the weather will be anywhere. Meteorologist Gary Lezak and Weather 2020, used their patent pending model to predict the weather for those dates.
We will keep an eye out for these dates to see if our forecast verifies.
How strong the storms will be for Colorado for Feb 17 – 22nd? This is a great question because knowing when the storms will return is only part of the equation. We are on the cusp of being able to answer this question, but we are not there yet. We know that the teleconnections are the key to this answer, such as the Artic Oscillation, the Pacific North American Pattern, the Madden Jullian Oscillation and El Nino Southern Osculation etc.
The model forecasts for these teleconnections are unfortunately not very good beyond a couple of weeks. I can say that the LRC (Lezaks Recurring Cycle) that Gary has spent 30 years of his live working on, is likely the driver of all of these mechanisms.
Think about this for a second, we have all of these great scientific discoveries, throughout human history, and we did not know that the weather cycles, until now?
The answer to the question is that we don’t know how strong the storms will be–yet, but there will be a storm coming through on those dates. In Cycle 1, the snow totals averaged between 4-6 inches, with the second storm averaging between 4-12. In Cycle 2, the first storm averaged between 4-8 inches, with the second storm averaging between 5-14, with Steamboat the winner in both cycles.
We are planning a trip to Revelstoke, what would be the best dates in Feb? The answer is Feb 12-15th. In Cycle 1, they had 14 inches, and in Cycle 2, 26″. When you have two cycles with strong storms it is very likely there will be another strong storm on those days.
West wide snow today from the Cascades, Sierra, Wasatch, and Rocky Mountains as a series of storms continue to come through. The next wave, off the coast of California continues the storm train through the holiday, with stops in Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. It doesn’t end there, because another storm rolls down the Pacific Northwest rail, taking a southeast track on Wednesday.
Wind Speed (Click to Animate)
Snow Total Forecast from Yesterday
Today: Winds calm down and so does the snowfall rates. This is the day to get on the hill, with cold temperatures, around 25 at base, with moderate winds in the 15-20 mph range. Scattered showers will bring an additional 2-4 for most mountains.
MLK Day: The next round fires up with heavy snowfall expected throughout the day. Temperatures will be in the mid 20’s with strong winds in the 15-25 mph range likely at base level, with 40+ at upper mountain areas.
Today: Powder Day for Alta, Snowbird and Deer Creek as their snows takes all had between 8-12 inches. Temperatures will begin the day around 25 degrees and fall throughout the day. Expect moderate winds 10-15 mph with 20 mph gusts. Heavy snow throughout the day tapering off by early evening.
MLK Day: Scattered snow showers throughout the day with not much in the way of accumulation. Temperatures in the low to mid 20’s with moderate winds from 10-15 mph.
Snow forecast from yesterday, below
Today: The second wave moves in and takes a northeast track. Temperatures will be in the upper 20’s to around 32 degrees depending on base elevation. Winds will be stronger to the south with 20-25 mph, whereas the central and northern ranges will be between 15-20.
MLK Day: Scattered snow showers expected with light snowfall amounts. Temperatures in the upper 20’s to around 30 at base level.
Snow Forecast from Yesterday Below
Next System to come thru Tuesday and Wednesday Below
Finally, some decent temperatures and snow for the northern Cascades, with temperatures near freezing at base level and mid 20’s at summit level. Crystal 2-4, Mt Baker 1-3, Snoqualmie 2-4. Southern Cascades Mt Hood and Mt Bachelor 4-8.
Next Wave on Tuesday
Current Teleconnection Charts
Long-Range Predictions thru March (from Monday)
We have our long-range forecast out thru March, there have been a lot of emails regarding the long-range, and I thank you for your patience. Every year, it is very challenging to put all of this together.
We are getting better and better at figuring out the cycle, what the various teleconnections are, and how likely they are to affect the pattern. It’s a lot of calculating, analyzing charts, and waiting.
It is also very rewarding once you figure out what is going on. Sometimes you think you have it all figured out, only to realize you were wrong. It takes all of the aforementioned process and much more, that I won’t bore you with, but there it is.
As always you can email me with other resorts and areas you are interested in. We can forecast for the entire northern hemisphere, so if you are interested in the east coast resorts, Europe, or Canada, just let us know and we will give you a detailed forecast.
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland