Daily Snow Stakes
Jackson Hole
Stevens Pass
Surface Chart
All Snow Chart
Forecast
The storm moves out of the Pacific Northwest this morning with the bulk of the energy in Idaho and Montana. Looking at the webcam at Big Sky, the heavy snow is just beginning to accumulate, as of 6am MT. Big Sky is one of my favorite resorts. Just an hour away from Boseman, it is a world class mountain with something for everyone.
You can take your family there, drop them off in ski school and hit the steeps. They have High Exposure backcountry access that are triple diamond, so bring your gear (avi-pack, shovel and beacon), if you are into that (required).
This storm is going to skirt northern Utah today, around 11, and we will likely get that refresh we were talking about. Probably 2-4 throughout the day today. Temperatures top out around 20, with moderate winds expected, between 15-20 with 30 mph gusts, that’ll bring he wind chills to around zero, so dress warm.
Colorado gets in on the action tonight, around midnight. The resorts along I-70 will be in the 2-4 range with upper end totals around 3-5, Breck could benefit from the direction of this system. A-Basin and Loveland are in the best spot for high end amounts. Central and northern mountains will be in the 1-3 range with the San Juans likely being missed.
Temperatures will be in the upper teens with strong winds along the divide, 25-30 with 45 mph gusts, getting less intense as you move west. It’ll be nice at Vail, light winds in the morning becoming moderate by afternoon. Should be good on Sun Down (chair 5) bowl in the afternoon.
Pattern Discussion
We just had our first storm verify from the 4th set of Long-Range Forecast Predictions. It is hard to wait, this time 27 days, for the storm to verify. I always breathe a sigh of relief when first, I see it on the GFS, and then when it verifies.
Storm 42 is making its way through the Cascades today and tonight, before going through the Wasatch range, then the Rockies around midday on Wednesday.
We have been watching the Madden Jullian Oscillation (MJO) as we believe we have a correlation between enhanced, or amplified storms and precipitation, with the MJO being in phases 6,7 and 8. The MJO is looking to enter those phases around the 14th. We are already seeing larger storms on the horizon, beginning with storm 45 on the 15th.
We know that during last year’s cycle 2, that the MJO played a role in an amplified pattern, for about half of the cycle, before falling out of phase. This year, the MJO has been in a favorable phase in parts of each of the last two cycles. Which is seemingly the key for Lake Tahoe.
When the MJO is in a good spot, we have good storms for the Lake. When the MJO is not in a good spot, the storms that should be there miss–usually. This could be huge for accurately predicting storms for Tahoe, because we do have a pretty good sense of forecasting the MJO at least 10 days in advance.
Meteorologist Gary Lezak
Gary posted an excellent breakdown of the upcoming storms from Sundays blog, if you didn’t get a chance to look at it, make sure you check it out-–Garys Post.
Thank you for reading the blog, as always, if you have any questions, or need personalized info for trip forecasts, please email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
Long-Range Forecast Predictions thru March
Forecasted Areas
Pacific Northwest Cascade Mountains
Crystal Mountain, Mount Hood Meadows, Timberline, 49 Degrees North, Bachelor, Mt Baker,
Lake Tahoe Sierra Mountains
Heavenly, Palisades Tahoe, Kirkwood, Dodge Ridge, Donner Ski Ranch
Utah Wasatch Mountains
Alta, Park City, Deer Valley, Brighton, Snowbird, Brian Head
Colorado Rocky Mountains
Aspen, Aspen Highlands, Snowmass, Vail, Beaver Creek, Winter Park, Keystone, Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper Mountain, Powderhorn, Ski Cooper, Telluride, Crested Butte, Silverton, Wolf Creek, Eldora, Loveland
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