Posted November 7, 2023
Forecast Discussion
Below is the surface chart through November 19th. I am letting it run so you can see the long stretches in between systems for California, Utah and Colorado. This chart will change over the next 288 hours, of course, but the storm that is showing up towards the end is expected to be there. I hope I don’t jinx it.
There definitely seems to be a northern pattern this year that will give the Pacific Northwest, Idaho and Montana above average snowfall. Watching the gif above, you can see the second storm take the northern track. In an amplified pattern, this storm will likely grow in scale and drop to Utah and Colorado. I can’t wait to see what this northern pattern does when amplification is engaged.
We might get our first glimpse of that amplification with this Nov 19th’ish system. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is predicted to come out of neutral territory and enter phase 7 and then phase 8 in the next two weeks. That should amplify the pattern and may be why the models show that strong storm.
The last time this system came through, back in September, there was an atmospheric river (AR) associated with the system and that may give us our first major dump for Lake Tahoe–we will be watching this for sure.
Below is the “all snow” chart through 288 hours. The snow totals are similar to what we have been looking at the last couple of days. I am still expecting 4-8 inches for the central and northern mountains of Colorado
All Snow
Post from yesterday
This is the Nov 9th storm for Colorado on the Test Predictions chart below. This storm is looking better as it hits the Pacific Northwest today and tonight. Tahoe gets in on the action as the southern edge will hit the Sierra with minor accumulations, but we will take it!
Storm totals for Washington resorts are going to be in the 4-8 range for resorts above 7000 ft. On the Oregon side a little less, between 3-6.
As this storm moves southeast, it gets into some colder air in Idaho. Brundage has a chance for decent totals, between 4-10, before the storm reaches northern Utah tomorrow afternoon. I am expecting 6-12 for Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, and Snowbasin.
The storm reaches northwest Colorado Wednesday morning thru Friday. Below are the projected storm totals. I will dive into the Colorado totals tomorrow, but for now it is looking like the central and northern mountains will be in the 4-8 range.
Posted November 4, 2023
Storm Tracks for October
The above chart shows the track of the storms affecting the west thru the month of October. The first storm was at the end of September and exited around October 4th. This track has a typical U shape and we have had this type of path the last few years, I usually call it a U Storm.
The second system that came thru (Oct 12-16) brought double digit totals for Utah and 8 inches for A Basin. This track is new to this year and resembles tracks during the 20-21 season.
The last storm that came thru (Oct 24-27) was unique in some ways. It was a two-wave system that rode the jet stream and had a unique path, due to high pressure off the west coast. This storm will be interesting to watch in the upcoming cycles to see the different ways it can present.
Below are the precipitation patterns for the months of August and September, followed by the water year for 22-23. The arrows are the general position of the storm tracks for the month. During August and September, the storm track stays mainly in Canada. you can see the average track in September (lower arrow) is a little lower than the August average.
In October, we begin to get the systems diving farther south, as we see in the map above. Finally, by November, and December, the storm track reaches its deepest point. What drives the storm track? The jet stream.
When we compare the three charts above with the water year chart below, we can see a major change in where the precipitation is falling. In August, we saw similar precipitation pattern that we have seen since October, last year, with the exception of California, where it was dry compared to the year prior.
September’s new storm track and pattern change has begun to show up in the monthly accumulation. You can begin to see the new track that spans the Pacific Northwest to Montana, Wyoming and Nebraska.
That similar track continues through October, and a new Gulf influence has established itself. Southern California Arizona and New Mexico are dry. If this pattern continues, we will see Lake Tahoe on the edge of the main track, meaning some storms will miss, but amplified storms will bring huge Atmospheric Rivers (AR’s). Feast or famine.
Forecast
Summary
The Pacific Northwest is the place to be so far, for precipitation at least. Mixed precipitation will continue today thru Monday as snow levels will oscillate between 10,000 to 7,000 feet–add a thousand feet for Oregon resorts. The main event begins Monday night when temperatures drop. This is Test Prediction Nov 9 for Colorado. As of now, the storm takes a “track 1” path. Moving east southeast that will likely clip northern Utah and central and northern Colorado.
We will see the best chance for 6-12 inches likely for Washington resorts. I will monitor this storm and have a fresh blog Monday. Mostly all rain for Oregon.
Back to Utah and Colorado. It does not look like a big producer, maybe 4-8 for central and northern resorts in Colorado. As of now, the models are not in agreement with how much snow northern Utah resorts. There should be some snow Monday night thru Wednesday morning. If I had to guess, I’d say 3-6 inches.
Now Colorado, the storm arrives around Tuesday night thru Thursday. It does not look like a big producer, maybe 4-8 for central and northern resorts.
Next Update Monday Morning
Test Predictions +/- 2 Days
Nov 9th Colorado (not on the GFS)
Nov 17th PNW
Nov 18th Utah
Nov 19th Colorado
Nov 22nd Tahoe (maybe)
Nov 23rd Utah
Nov 24th Colorado
Nov 27th Tahoe
Nov 28th Utah
Nov 29th Colorado
There they are, the first set of test predictions. We will see how they lineup with this year‘s pattern. They could be off by up to two days, if the storms are not anywhere close then it’s back to the drawing board.
I have not included Canada or the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in these predictions, so if you are from those regions, email me and I’ll tell you when those storms will roll through.
There are more storms for the PNW and Canada in the pattern so far. It may be one of those years where a trip to Powder Highway, Whistler, Banff or Revelstoke my be the preferred location for those who go where the powder is—still way too early to tell.
When I think of where we were last year at this time, we did know that the drought was likely going to end for Lake Tahoe. On November 1, last year, we published the LRC model forecast that predicted over 140% of average for Lake Tahoe, with 70 to 100% of average for the PNW.
This year based on how the pattern is setting up, I would predict the Pacific Northwest to be 110 and 130% of average. We’re going to have a LRC model run soon. Of course we will share that with you when it’s out.
Hurricane Page
You can find the original post May 19th, and all Hurricane posts on this page—most recent posts appear first. https://futuresnow.co/hurricane-forecast-2023/
Thanks for reading the blog! If you have any questions, feel free to comment below or email me at Mike@FutureSnow.co
