Forecast
PNW
Winter still has a hold in the west, from Seattle down to Lake Tahoe with cold temperatures in Washington and Oregon, to warmer temps at the Lake. There will be snow today and tonight for the Cascades, with 4-8 today, with light winds in the north, to moderate winds for south resorts Mt Hood Meadows and Timberline.
Tahoe
For the Lake, a mix of rain at the base, to freezing rain, to snow above 8000 ft. Palisades reported 15″ at 8000 ft and 9″ at 6200 ft yesterday. Expect another 6-10 above 8000 ft.
Utah
Utah stays active with snow today and tonight with moderate winds between 15-20. Expect 2-4 today with another 3-5 tonight before the storm exits.
Colorado
Colorado fights the warm temps today with highs in the lower 50’s at 7700 ft. Only the higher elevation resorts, like Arapahoe Basin, Loveland and Breckenridge will have snow. Expect 0-1 today 2-4 tonight.
Upcoming Pattern Storms through June
Below are storms in the pattern that are significant and have repeated at least twice. We have a long cycle length of 64 days, that is the second longest length in the last 20 years. The average cycle length, over the last 20 years is 53 days. The shortest was 38 days and the longest was 75. The long cycle length has a possible connection to the following years El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Sixty four percent of the time, after a significant jump in cycle length, the following year was an El Nino year.
April 16-18 This storm is the first wave of the Trifecta and has hit all 3 cycles. Last cycle was puny in size and strength, due to the double barrel high pressure, but still hit. Cycle 2 was epic with over 2 ft in PNW, Colorado and Utah. Cycle 1 was warm with rain in CO and UT.
April 22-24 Trifecta 2 waves: Rain cycle 1 for PNW, between 10-18″ for Colorado resorts, over 2 feet for Utah’s Cottonwoods. Cycle 2: Crystal 30, Snowbird 32, and Crested Butte 31. Cycle 3 Mt Hood (Timberline) Alta 7, Vail 7
April 28-29 This storm hit in Cycles 1 and 2 and was 2 days late in Cycle 3. Cycle 2 had rain for the PNW
May 5 (Tahoe AR Oct 25) Epic 100″ week in Cycle 2 with 39″ 1-day total in Cycle 1.However, in Cycle 3 the storm was caught up in the double-barrel high and that pushed the storm up in Canada.
May 7-8 Good storm all three cycles for Colorado and Utah with double-digit totals for all 3 Cycles with Cycle 2 the winner. If you are looking for a powder day in May, this is the one to watch. Arapahoe Basin time?
May 13-14 Storm hit Colorado all 3 cycles and missed to the north of Utah, in Cycle 1
May 17 Missed Utah and Colorado to the north in Cycle 1, but hit in both Cycle 2-3
May 20-21 Last storm of Active West Small system due to the weakening Active West pattern and transition to the Northern Pattern. Hit in all 3 cycles for Utah and Colorado
June 5-6 AR 4th Straight for Seattle?
Updated Prediction Chart
