March and April Predictions

March and April Predictions

It has been an amazing year so far, FutureSnow has accurately predicted 23 out of 27 events, that’s 85%. That is really an amazing statistic because all of the predictions have been made at least 25 days in advance before any models are in range. The longest was 56 days for Colorado where Vail had 13 inches. There is an even longer prediction coming up, 67 days, for March 9-11th. I would love to end the ski season with 90%. This is not meant as a brag, I just simply interpret the data, it more of how cool it is to know when these systems will come through.

Next Round of Predictions

Powderhorn Mountain CO

We are in the middle of the predicted storm and the next storm system is coming through on the 7-8th. The winners so far are the southern Mountains of Colorado and Lake Tahoe region. The storm for February 7-8th is showing up on GFS and looks correct, meaning the models have the correct solution. This is one of the features of the Cycling Pattern is you know when the models are right or wrong based on the template of what has happened before. The influences (AO, NAO, PNA, MJO etc) are different and have to be factored in, but the general picture is similar.
The last time this system came through was on day 33 and 34 of last cycle which was December 23 and 24th. Canadian resorts were favored with Kickinghorse reporting 13”, Banff 16”, Crystal Mountain 9” and Mount Hood 8”. Alta had a great powder day of 18+. Tahoe did get snow but not very much Squaw had 4”. The Colorado resorts were all in single digits with Arapaho Basin and Breckenridge reporting 6”.
this time around the cycle is stronger so I expect the totals to be higher. Stay tuned.

GFS from last time through December 23. Upcoming storm February 7-9